SHFE Copper Jumped Initially and Then Pulled Back, Aluminum Rebounded Slightly [Institutional Commentary]

【Futures Market】The SHFE copper futures opened higher in the night session, briefly breaking through the 83,000 mark in the morning session, and the adjustment expanded in the afternoon. The most-traded May contract closed at 82,000, up 0.34%, with the total trading volume hitting a recent high, and the total open interest increased by over 13,000 lots to 604,700 lots. SHFE aluminum futures fluctuated and rebounded, with the intraday trading rhythm basically in sync with alumina. The most-traded May contract closed at 20,720, up 0.27%, while the May alumina contract closed at 3,108, up 1.01%.

【Analysis】Last night, COMEX copper hit a new historical high again, as the market continued to trade on the impact of the US imposing tariffs on copper. During the day, SHFE copper jumped initially and then pulled back, with the daily upper shadow exceeding 1,600 points, showing signs of adjustment. Pay attention to short-term volatility risks. In the medium term, it is recommended to focus on whether the continuously new low and negative copper concentrate TCs will lead to production cuts by copper smelters, maintaining an optimistic outlook in the medium term. Aluminum is currently fluctuating between 20,500 and 21,000, waiting for peak season consumption data.

【Valuation】Copper is neutral to slightly high, aluminum is neutral.

【Risk】Macro policies fall short of expectations.

(Source: China Fortune Futures)